Wednesday, August 6, 2014

EV sales projects

Mark Larsen is projecting 1,000,000 cumulative by 2017.

This is based on 5% monthly increase based on the Cumulative Number, which I feel is a mistake.  The cumulative rate of increase has been steadily decreasing, as one would expect when working from a higher installed base.

2011 42%
2012 12%
2013 8%
2014 5%

So I tried 5% increase per month based on the not cumulative number.  That is roughly 60% increase per year.

This obviously results in more modest projections.  And because inquiring minds want to know, here is the same data in log form.

I've spoken with Mark about this and he does not agree with me.

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